1. I play the statistic on Dry Tracks Only.
2. I pass the statistic if the race is taken off the turf.
3. I pass the statistic if the horse is 0 for 6 at today's distance.
4. I pass the statistic if the horse is 0 for 6 at today's track.
5. I pass the statistic if the horse is 0 for 6 on today's surface.
6. I pass the statistic if the jockey has a 5% or lower win rate.
7. I consider the 4 + 30 play my long shot method. Being such, I apply one additional filter to this stat that I do not apply to the Automatic. I require a morning line of 5/2 or higher, and I pass the bet at 2/1 or lower.
8. I employ an odds percentage table to know when to bet the statistic as an overlay. As an example, the Automatics have a 40% win rate that equates to 3/2 odds. I pass the bet if it drops to 7/5, which is a 42% hit rate and a mathematical underlay.

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Given the above filters, it should be clear that I am looking to play a total of five (5) automatic and/or 4+30 statistics where a particular trainer's horse fits one of my four factors (layoff, claim, debut or won last race), is a proven winner at the distance, at the track, on today's surface and track condition, and races today under a winning jockey.

For efficiency and ease of identifying automatics and 4+30s, the trainer, track, race and statistic for every track racing on a particular day are listed in the Index on the main page of my website. I "handicap" quickly and efficiently by applying the above filers. These filters prevent me from making too many bets and enable me to pass statistics/races that fail to meet the above rules. Applying filters and passing a race does not mean that once the filters are applied the statistic will not hit and the horse will not win. It means I will bet on another stat that I believe has a better chance of winning than the stat that I filtered.

Fourth, I use color codes in my Past Performances to efficiently identify the four applicable statistics:

• Green identifies a Layoff statistic, a break of 45 days or longer.
• Orange identifies a Claim statistic.
• Gray identifies the Debut statistic.
• Blue identifies the Won Last Race statistic.
• Yellow identifies speed. (I completely ignore speed in my handicapping and consider this a secondary handicapping factor. I do, however, include speed in my Past Performances for players who wish to consider speed.)

Each color-coded applicable statistic measures a trainer's four race form cycle. My stats, compiled over many years, tell me when a trainer gets a win for his owner. My stats also tell me a trainer who does not get a win for the owner within a 4-race cycle doesn't don't know when they might get a win! Therefore, a horse that runs the first race of his career in a Maiden race is counted as Debut 1. When the horse runs the second race in a Maiden race, then it is counted as Debut 2, on up to Debut 4. If the horse does not win by its fourth career start and runs in a Maiden race in their fifth career start, I do not count this because the cycle stops after race 4. The cycle also stops on a Debut horse if the horse wins anywhere within this 4 race cycle, and this same cycle and count applies to layoffs, claims and "won last race."

Looking at races this way gives me the advantage of a set routine.

Additionally, I am a meticulous record keeper. I record all my bets. My records tell me that I average just over 1 win per day. To repeat, my approach is to place 5 bets a day and average 1 and 1/4 wins per day. Since the above filters and odds rules prevent betting underlays, I will have a positive R.O.I. over any length of time.

The record keeping supplies the context and understanding to bet statistics. The reality of making 5 bets per day is that out of 20 days I will have 25 wins.


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