Ed Bain - Past Performances

Home Today's Stats Today's Pick Pricing FAQs Contact Us Join Now

Track Index

Playing Ed Bain's Automatics and 4+30 Statistics

I've been asked to outline the rules I follow to bet trainer statistics with my Past Performances.

First, I'll define my terms and conditions. I only bet my two primary statistics: the Automatics and the 4+30s. The automatic is my trainer statistic that means a particular trainer has produced at least 8 wins and a win rate of 40% or higher with a positive Return on Investment (R.O.I.) after a layoff, claim, debut or "won last race." Automatics are highlighted in purple in my past performances. The 4+30 is a trainer statistic that means a particular trainer has produced 4 wins or more, plus a win rate at 30% or higher after a layoff, claim, debut or "won last race." The 4+30 play is highlighted in red in my past performances. Each of these plays is listed by Index on the home page of my website, www.edbain.com.

Second, my approach is to place five (5) bets each day from the total of automatics and 4+30s. I begin by looking through the Automatics and then through all the 4 + 30s. I am looking for reasons to eliminate automatic or 4+30 plays from the index and "filter" down to my best 5. When looking at 4+30s, I only consider those that apply to one of my four applicable factors: Layoffs, Claims, Debuts and Won Last Race.

Third, the filters I apply to both automatics and 4+30s are:

I play the statistic on Dry Tracks Only.
I pass the statistic if the race is taken off the turf.
I pass the statistic if the horse is 0 for 4 at today's distance.
I pass the statistic if the horse is 0 for 4 at today's track.
I pass the statistic if the horse is 0 for 4 on today's surface.
I pass the statistic if the jockey has a 5% or lower win rate.
I pass all races where there are two Automatics, two 4 +30s or one of each in the same race. I have learned that "when you choose, you lose!"
I consider the 4 + 30 play my long shot method. Being such, I apply one additional filter to this stat that I do not apply to the Automatic. I require a morning line of 5/2 or higher, and I pass the bet at 2/1 or lower.
I employ an odds percentage table to know when to bet the statistic as an overlay. As an example, the Automatics have a 40% win rate that equates to 3/2 odds. I pass the bet if it drops to 7/5, which is a 42% hit rate and a mathematical underlay.

DOWNLOAD FREE ODDS % PAYOUT TABLE

ODDS % TABLE
Odds	Decimal	Percentage	Pay Out
1-10	0.10	90%	$2.20
1-5	0.20	83%	$2.40
2-5	0.40	71%	$2.80
1-2	0.50	67%	$3.00
3-5	0.60	63%	$3.20
4-5	0.80	56%	$3.60
1-1	1.00	50%	$4.00
6-5	1.20	45%	$4.40
7-5	1.40	42%	$4.80
3-2	1.50	40%	$5.00
8-5	1.60	38%	$5.20
9-5	1.80	36%	$5.60
2-1	2.00	33%	$6.00
5-2	2.50	29%	$7.00
3-1	3.00	25%	$8.00
7-2	3.50	22%	$9.00
4-1	4.00	20%	$10.00
9-2	4.50	18%	$11.00
5-1	5.00	17%	$12.00
6-1	6.00	14%	$14.00
7-1	7.00	13%	$16.00
8-1	8.00	11%	$18.00
9-1	9.00	10%	$20.00
10-1	10.00	9%	$22.00
11-1	11.00	8%	$24.00
12-1	12.00	7%	$26.00
15-1	15.00	6%	$32.00
20-1	20.00	5%	$42.00
25-1	25.00	4%	$52.00
30-1	30.00	3%	$62.00
50-1	50.00	2%	$102.00

Given the above filters, it should be clear that I am looking to play a total of five (5) automatic and/or 4+30 statistics where a particular trainer's horse fits one of my four factors (layoff, claim, debut or won last race), is a proven winner at the distance, at the track, on today's surface and track condition, and races today under a winning jockey.

For efficiency and ease of identifying automatics and 4+30s, the trainer, track, race and statistic for every track racing on a particular day are listed in the Index on the main page of my website. I "handicap" quickly and efficiently by applying the above filers. These filters prevent me from making too many bets and enable me to pass statistics/races that fail to meet the above rules. Applying filters and passing a race does not mean that once the filters are applied the statistic will not hit and the horse will not win. It means I will bet on another stat that I believe has a better chance of winning than the stat that I filtered.

Fourth, I use color codes in my Past Performances to efficiently identify the four applicable statistics:

Green identifies a Layoff statistic, a break of 45 days or longer.
Orange identifies a Claim statistic.
Gray identifies the Debut statistic.
Blue identifies the Won Last Race statistic.
Yellow identifies speed. (I completely ignore speed in my handicapping and consider this a secondary handicapping factor. I do, however, include speed in my Past Performances for players who wish to consider speed.)

Each color-coded applicable statistic measures a trainer's four race form cycle. My stats, compiled over many years, tell me when a trainer gets a win for his owner. My stats also tell me a trainer who does not get a win for the owner within a 4-race cycle doesn't don't know when they might get a win! Therefore, a horse that runs the first race of his career in a Maiden race is counted as Debut 1. When the horse runs the second race in a Maiden race, then it is counted as Debut 2, on up to Debut 4. If the horse does not win by its fourth career start and runs in a Maiden race in their fifth career start, I do not count this because the cycle stops after race 4. The cycle also stops on a Debut horse if the horse wins anywhere within this 4 race cycle, and this same cycle and count applies to layoffs, claims and "won last race."

Looking at races this way gives me the advantage of a set routine.

Additionally, I am a meticulous record keeper. I record all my bets. My records tell me that I average just over 1 win per day. To repeat, my approach is to place 5 bets a day and average 1 and 1/4 wins per day. Since the above filters and odds rules prevent betting underlays, I will have a positive R.O. I. over any length of time.

The record keeping supplies the context and understanding to bet statistics. The reality of making 5 bets per day is that out of 20 days I will have 25 wins.

Today's Stats

Fri, May 18, 2012
Tracks:	19
Races:	172
4+30s:	190
Automatics:	84

Tomorrow's Stats

Sat, May 19, 2012
Tracks:	23
Races:	227
4+30s:	265
Automatics:	129